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Online Trading

Friday 12 January 2018


The ECB sent the single currency on the March but it was ultimately steered by EYR/JPY flows late in the NY shift with the pair dropping back to post ECB hawkish minutes highs of 1.2059, ending the NY session at 1.2040.

European 10-year yields were up 4-6bps after the ECB minutes were interpreted as hawkish, but were down 2bp in the US.

The outlook is bullish on the daily sticks with the 10-D SMA broken and a close above 1.2023. Daily momentum is neutral and directional indicators have converged. Recent support has been observed in the lower 1.19s around the midpoint of the range from mid-December. 1.2052 as the Jan 8 high and 1.2089 4 Jan high are next key targets. To the downside, 1.1903 is the 50% Fibo of 1.1718-1.2089.

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GBP/USD  spiked into the close for NY o the back of a free-fall on the DXY on Thursday’s NA session.

Casting minds back to Wednesday”s data as follows:

Manufacturing Output MM Nov, 0.4%, 0.3% expected, 0.3% previous,
Manufacturing Output YY Nov, 3.5%, 2.8% expected 4.7% previous,
Goods Trade Balance GBP Nov, -12.23B, 10.70B expected, -11.68B previous,
Industrial Output YY Nov, 2.5%, 1.8% expected, 3.6% previous,
Construction O/P Vol YY Nov, 0.4%, -1.1% expected, 1.3% previous,
… there is not much there in the mix that offers bulls stability here, although we now await  US CPI and Retail Sales as the next catalysts and a miss will be enough to
firm the bullish case on a fundamental basis. However, an anchor on the pound comes in the noise around Brexit that cemented the offers on Thursday where a No deal’ Brexit could cost the UK about 500,000 jobs, according to the London mayor.

GBP/USD was threatening the 21 day MA (1.3456) with risk toward the 50 day MA in the mid-1.33s having fallen below and outside of Jan’s 3 daily bar, (1.3614-1.3495). Thursday’s spike back to 1.3520 was bought again and sterling is back into a bullish scenario above the hourly 100 SMA at 1.3536 with an upturn in RSI on the 4hr sticks. There is scope for 1.3658/71 September high and double Fibonacci retracement.  Momentum on the daily chart is firmer while RSI struggles to get through 70 and remains flat.

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USD/JPY were not buying BOJ rhetoric over JGBs. A weaker dollar meant bulls could not break 111.90 in NY and instead, the price dropped back to probe the 50% of Sep-Nov rise at 111.03.

US 10yr treasury yields initially rose from 2.53% to 2.57% on the back of the ECB minutes and a sell-off on Bunds and Chinese officials denying the Bloomberg story, but they later completely retraced on the long-dated auction.

The price is back to probing 50% of Sep-Nov rise at 111.03 while the Nov’s low is at 110.85 as next support area although technically the pair is oversold. However, 110 is in the spotlight below 111.80 while RSI threatens a break of 30 on the daily sticks while the 10-D SMA steepens lower below the 21-D SMA.

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AUD/USD was making a positive scene in the NY session, even making a mark above the 61.8 Fib of 0.8125-0.7501.

The catalyst came in a drop in US yields after the long-dated auction in the NY afternoon while US data failed to impress and the ECB minutes dented the greenbacks pride.

AUD/USD was resting up and taking a breather into the close of the NY session where traders awaited the Chinese trade data, US CPI and to a lesser extent, retail sales.

AUD/USD set new trend high in NY with eyes set on the October 2017 high, 0.7896.  Technicals lean bullish above the aforementioned clearing of the 61.8% fibo of 0.8125-0.7501 with daily RSI testing back into overbought territory above 70. 0.7808 marks the double bottom low to the downside guarding the 0.78 handle and 100-D SAM at 0.7773.

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EUR/GBP still trades in neutral territory despite the ECB minutes kicking off the ‘tweaking policy’ rhetoric early in 2018.

The cross rallied +0.44% and ended the NY session at 0.8887 within a NorAm range of between 0.8865-0.8912. EUR bulls will enjoy that the ECB looks to be offering the most potential for policy change among major central banks this year so far, and EUR/GBP is likely to remain in the hands of investor appetite for EUR and Brexit news.

There is a wider range of between 0.8650 and 0.90  while key resistance and supports are now seen at 0.8924 (4 Jan high) and 0.8761 (14 Dec low), respectively.

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DJIA made another fresh high on Thursday.

The Dow on Thursday finished at 25,574.73, a 0.8%, and made more than a 200-point gain to mark a 3.5% for the start of the year so far in January as investors scope out the risk of rising yields and falling bond prices. Energy prices are also lifting the markets with Brent hitting $70bbls for the first time in three years and WTI through $63.50 driven by OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts and expectations for demand.

The bullish picture remains intact on a longer-term outlook. The 4hr chart is also bullish and the daily RSI remains well into positive territory above 70.

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Germany’s DAX 30 index  declined 0.6% to finish at 13,202.90.

Shares in Europe were o the back foot as investors expected hawkish ECB in the minutes and while the euro rallied on Wednesday, hurting shares of exporters on the Frankfurt exchange. The euro continues to do well in the wake of a weaker greenback and Friday’s US data will be key. However, companies outside of financials will not enjoy higher yields in the 10-year German government bund that turned higher on Thursday,  rising 4 basis points to 0.515%.

Technicals continue to lean bearish and the RSI falls furth away from 70 on the daily sticks. Daily MA’s stay in a cluster around 13148 that marking a supporting level in Asian electronic trade. Bulls need the index above 13500 and Nov 2017 highs of 13524 while a break of 13095 would pass the baton over to the bears eyeing 12905.

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While investors are still keen on US stocks, the price of gold continues to perform well in the wake of 2018’s risk profile at the start of this year.

Gold prices nudge up a level on Thursday to finish at a four-month high, with bulls embracing the weakness in the greenback ahead of key US data on Friday in US CPI and retail sales.
Gold futures for Feb added $3.20, or 0.2%, to close at $1,322.50 an ounce. spot gold finished at $1,322 after a bit of profit taking pst the final leg higher post the drop in Us yields at the long-dated auction late on in the NY shift.

The CCI indicator on the daily chart stays near the 100 mark in favour of the bulls while targeting $1327 (Jan. 10 high) before looking to test $1334 (Sep. 14 high) and $1344 (Sep. 5 high). On the flip side, supports are located at the 10-D SMA at $1316, $1300 (psychological level), $1294 (Dec. 29 low) and $1286 (Dec. 28 low).
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