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Online Trading

Thursday 11 January 2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD finished the NY session at 1.1950 after entering After opening near the 200-hour SMA after a turbulent Europen morning. EUR/USD traded between 1.1923/18.

Chinese officials recommended slowing or halting buying of US Treasuries forcing a knee-jerk rally in the single currency on a sell-off in the greenback to 1.2018 highs. There was a subsequent break below 92 in the DXY to 91.92 before the dollar climbed back on the day to 91.41 in the DXY when US rates rallied higher with the benchmark treasury yields extending on a break of a thirty-year-long downtrend.

The Chinese news came from a Bloomberg source and in a report that claimed unnamed China officials had recommended slowing or halting purchases of US treasuries. (US 10yr treasury yields rose from 2.54% to 2.60%, (the highest since March 2017)).

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was speaking. Kaplan is expecting the Fed to hike rates three more times concerned about the US economy overheating. All eyes look ahead to EU releasing November industrial production data and the US publishing December PPI ahead of US CPI and retail sales.

The daily close below 1.1947 was 38.2% retracement of the 1.1718 to 1.2089 (Dec to Jan) rise. The daily sticks remain bullish while above the 21-D SMA at 1.1913 although the RSI dips below 70 but the fourteen-day momentum remains positive. A move back to Tuesday’s high of 1.1975 would cement a bullish case for a test of 1.1997 as the 10-Day MA before 1.2052 Jan 8 high and 1.2089 4 Jan high. To the downside, 1.1903 is the 50% Fibo of 1.1718-1.2089.

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GBP/USD

Sterling finished NY down -0.14% and traded with a range of 1.3559-1.3504, closing at 1.3520, (the high made on the back of the Chinese news, certainly not the poor industry data from overnight, weighing on the greenback).

Data as follows:

Manufacturing Output MM Nov, 0.4%, 0.3% expected, 0.3% previous.
Manufacturing Output YY Nov, 3.5%, 2.8% expected 4.7% previous.
Goods Trade Balance GBP Nov, -12.23B, 10.70B expected, -11.68B previous.
Industrial Output YY Nov, 2.5%, 1.8% expected, 3.6% previous.
Construction O/P Vol YY Nov, 0.4%, -1.1% expected, 1.3% previous.
GBP/USD remains within Jan’s 3 daily bar (1.3614-1.3495) and technicals remain the same and lean bullish while still trading above the key 1.33 level while consolidating below recent highs at 1.3614/58, made in September and January. (There is scope to 1.3658/71 September high and double Fibonacci retracement.) However, Momentum on the daily chart is turning lower still while RSI struggled to get through 70 and turning south. A break below 1.33 support would open 1.3265 2014-17 uptrends ahead of a drop towards 1.2830/1.2774 as being the 38.2% retracement and August low, and the 1.2575 50% retracement.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY is in a bearish formation after US stocks failed to impress and markets turn risk-off on the Chinese noise.

There was speculation that the BOJ may consider reducing its QQE while doing so in stealth fashion already is offering a bid in the yen. Markets will turn to the BoJ next week for messages on yield curve control – (yen shorts are nervous).

Major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day on the back foot on Wednesday weighed by the broad-based risk aversion and did little to recover on the NY session. The Chinese news came from a Bloomberg source and in a report that claimed unnamed China officials had recommended slowing or halting purchases of US treasuries. US 10yr treasury yields rose from 2.54% to 2.60%, (the highest since March 2017). However, US 10yr yields then dropped back to 2.56% while the 2yr treasury yields spiked from 1.96% to 1.98% on the news before decaying back to 1.97% into the close.

USD/JPY is bearish below the 112.00 level while traders look to  50% level of the of Sep-Nov rise and Nov’s low at 111.03-110.85. Yen shorts are nervous here as these levels will be key as we head in towards US CPI and retails sales on Friday. The 200-day ma at 111.71 is key next support ahead of that 110.85 end of November low

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AUD/USD

After opening near 0.7855 with a rally in the European morning on the China noise and a sell-off in the greenback.

AUD rose from 0.7810 to 0.7867 in NY helped by a recovery in commodity prices. Nov retail sales and China Dec trade are key data risks in Asia

Technicals lean bullish while price continues to consolidate near highs with prevalent RSIs biased positively. Indeed, the monthly outlook leans bullish while the daily technicals point towards a likely correction. Daily RSI is still lower but with a double bottom on the daily sticks supports the short-term while price traded below the 10-D SMA at 0.7827 again.

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EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP ended NY at 0.8845 +0.36%, within a range of 0.8873-0.8846, while the above target UK inflation is anchoring sterling.

The UK data is likely a pull going forward with 0.89 on the cards in the cross. Meanwhile, German yields rallied to their highest since Oct ECB meeting. Fench Industrial Output MM Nov, -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, 1.9% previous and staying with France, “EU needs united approach on foreign investment to gain China’s respect,” explained Macron.

Despite there being risk to the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year at 0.8697 on further slides, the price remains in the bullish territory around the 200-D SMA at 0.8824 and is testing a break of the 10-D SMA at 0.8869. However, a break and closes below 0.8850 and the 50- D SMA opens doors to 0.8740 first stop.

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DOW JONES

The financial-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day at 25,369.37, down 16.43 points, or 0.06% as investors paused in the rally and took some profits off the table.

The news that China was considering halting or cutting its purchases of U.S. government paper sent ricochets through global the markets and a flight to the sidelines. Eyes are now on what China is up to here and how fundamental the noise might become with respect to trade relations.

From a technical perspective, the moves have done little to change the bullish picture on a longer-term outlook although hourly RSI is lower below 70 while the MAs remain bullish. The 4hr chart is also bullish and the daily RSI remains well into positive territory above 70.

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DAX

In a sense of global tightening, Germany’s DAX 30 shed 0.8% and finished up the session in Frankfurt at 13,281.34, as European stock rally pauses.

However, the index was closing slightly better than the 1% drop that met the lowest levels seen since 5th Jan, although still ending the market’s longest winning streak since early November.

Technicals lean bearish and the RSI loses traction below 70 on the daily sticks while momentum dumps to hover below its midline. Daily MA’s stay in a cluster around 13130 and sit with a bullish bias on the daily sticks still. Bulls need the index above 13500 and Nov 2017 highs of 13524 while a break of 13095 would pass the baton over to the bears eyeing 12905.

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GOLD

Despite speculation that the bull market in bonds, which has lasted for more than 25 years, could be coming to an end and with the recent noise around China trimming its treasury purchases, it should be understood that rising U.S. nominal yields are being offset by rising inflation expectations and real yields remains range bound, thus, so far, there is little impact on the price of gold.

However, gold prices did settle higher on Wednesday as the dollar fell early doors in European markets and Wall Street tanking added to the upside in NY. February gold rallied $5.60, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,319.30 an ounce. However, earlier in the day, a high of $1,328.60 was made making for the highest intraday level since September the 15th 2017. Spot settled at $1,303 in NY.

Bullishly, the CCI indicator on the daily chart moved back towards the 100 level. For spot, traders will target closes above $1327 (daily high) ahead of $1334 (Sep. 14 high) and $1344 (Sep. 5 high). Bears will look towards $1300 (psychological level) below $1305, $1294 (Dec. 29 low) and $1286 (Dec. 28 low).

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